In advance of Hollywood's favorite party award shows tonight, I thought I'd share my thoughts on who should and who will win. While I haven't seen all of the films and television shows mentioned below, my knowledge of each should be enough to make an educated guess.
Ricky Gervais should be a great host...I look forward to him roasting a number of pompous A and B-list celebrities.
Best motion picture, drama
"Avatar"; "The Hurt Locker"; "Inglourious Basterds"; "Precious"; "Up in the Air"Will win: "Up in the Air"
Should win: "Up in the Air" - In a year when we had less movies released due to the 2007 strike, the performances in "Up in the Air" along with its relevance in a time when unemployment is at its highest makes "Up in the Air" the movie to beat.
Best TV series, drama
"Big Love"; "Dexter"; "House"; "Mad Men"; "True Blood" Will win: "Mad Men"
Should win: "Lost" - Yes, I know it wasn't nominated, but last season's of "Lost" was its best since the first season, capped by a mind-blowing season finale. No other show has a season premiere that has more people excited which means "Lost" was robbed this season.Best motion picture, comedy or musical
"(500) Days of Summer"; "The Hangover"; "It's Complicated"; "Julie & Julia"; "Nine"Will win: "Julie and Julia"
Should win (tie): "(500) Days of Summer" and "The Hangover" - As one of my top five films this year, "(500) Days of Summer" was outstanding and a fresh approach to the typical romantic film. While not a viable candidate for a real awards show (translation: The Oscars), "The Hangover" became the highest grossing R-rated film of all-time and caused major buzz with its over-the-top hijinks and its even more-over-the-top credits.
Best TV series, comedy or musical
"30 Rock"; "Entourage"; "Glee"; "Modern Family"; "The Office"Will win: "30 Rock"
Should win: "Modern Family" - While "30 Rock" is a quality show and will win because Hollywood loves nothing more than an inside joke on their industry, "Modern Family" has catapulted ABC back into the sitcom game with this hilarious and still endearing new comedy. "Glee" loses in a close race for who "should win" even though it counts as a show that I can't miss week after week and for which I download every song. Who knew that the writers in Hollywood actually had original ideas still left in them?!
Best actor in a motion picture, drama
Jeff Bridges, "Crazy Heart"; George Clooney, "Up in the Air"; Colin Firth, "A Single Man"; Morgan Freeman, "Invictus"; Tobey Maguire, "Brothers"Will win: Jeff Bridges
Should win: George Clooney - While unfair in choosing Clooney over Bridges since I have not seen "Crazy Heart", Clooney's performance in "Up in the Air" truly made you feel for him...in good times and in bad. Morgan Freeman was good as Nelson Mandela, but not the best of this bunch. Maguire was outstanding in "Brothers" (about the only thing that was outstanding in the movie), but still not the caliber of Clooney (and perhaps Bridges' performance).
Best actor in a TV series, drama
Simon Baker, "The Mentalist"; Michael C. Hall, "Dexter"; Jon Hamm, "Mad Men"; Hugh Laurie, "House"; Bill Paxton, "Big Love"Will win: Hugh Laurie
Should win: I simply don't care. While I watch more television than the normal full-time employed father of two children, none of these shows have ever interested me. In a year when "24" finally rose from the ashes, it is a shame that Keifer Sutherland wasn't nominated.
Best actress in a motion picture, drama
Emily Blunt, "The Young Victoria"; Sandra Bullock, "The Blind Side"; Helen Mirren, "The Last Station"; Carey Mulligan, "An Education"; Gabourey Sidibe, "Precious"Will win: Helen Mirren
Should win: Unknown. Having only seen "The Blind Side" from this group, a movie that was pleasantly entertaining and that had a performance by Bullock that actually made me respect her and almost like her for the first time in my life, it is unfair for me to say who should win. Hollywood seems to really like Mirren so I provide a guess that they will choose her.
Best actress in a TV series, drama
Glenn Close, "Damages"; January Jones, "Mad Men"; Julianna Margulies, "The Good Wife"; Anna Paquin, "True Blood"; Kyra Sedgwick, "The Closer"Will win (a toss-up): Glenn Close or Kyra Sedgwick
Should win: Another category in which it is unfair for me to guess as the only show I watch is "True Blood". Knowing that Anna Paquin is by no means a "best actress", it will be between Close and Sedgwick.
Best actress in a motion picture, comedy or musical
Sandra Bullock, "The Proposal"; Marion Cotillard, "Nine"; Julia Roberts, "Duplicity"; Meryl Streep, "It's Complicated"; Meryl Streep, "Julie & Julia"Will win: Meryl Streep
Should win: In a category where Streep represents 40% of the nominees, how can she not win? While Roberts was entertaining in "Duplicity", it was by no means a "best actress" performance. "Nine" performed too poorly at the box office for Cotillard to win and it is embarrassing to even nominate Bullock for a crappy comedy. Streep takes the award home for her performance in "Julie and Julia".
Best actress in a TV series, comedy or musical
Toni Collette, "United States of Tara"; Courteney Cox, "Cougar Town"; Edie Falco, "Nurse Jackie"; Tina Fey, "30 Rock"; Lea Michele, "Glee"Will win: Tina Fey
Should win: Tina Fey - While Falco has strong potential to take the award home due to her popularity in Hollywood and for her track record on picking the right roles, Hollywood's love of themselves puts Fey as the one to beat. Cox is simply annoying in a show that has grown stale and Michele, while entertaining as the irritating lead in "Glee", is not strong enough for an award-winning performance.
Best actor in a motion picture, comedy or musical
Matt Damon, "The Informant!"; Daniel Day-Lewis, "Nine"; Robert Downey Jr., "Sherlock Holmes"; Joseph Gordon-Levitt, "(500) Days of Summer"; Michael Stuhlbarg, "A Serious Man"Will win: Stuhlberg
Should win: Joseph Gordon-Levitt - Levitt was great in this little-seen dramady. The lack of popularity for "Nine" dooms Lewis and Downey Jr. did not deliver an award-winning performance in "Holmes". Having not seen "The Informant" (a movie that rated well but did not perform well at the box office) and "A Serious Man", I will not comment on the performances.
Best actor in a TV series, comedy or musical
Alec Baldwin, "30 Rock"; Steve Carell, "The Office"; David Duchovny, "Californication"; Thomas Jane, "Hung"; Matthew Morrison, "Glee"Will win: Baldwin
Should win: David Duchovny - Duchovny's "Californication" is one of the best shows on television and Duchovny plays the sex-addict (if that is what you want to call him) so well that he even continued playing the role in real life. Baldwin continues to bring a strong performance and will win again due to Hollywood's arrogance. Carell, while funny, leads a show that has seen better days. Jane is fine in "Hung" but the show's disappointing first season won't help win the award. Morrison isn't an award-winning performer (even if he is a good singer/dancer).
Best supporting actor/Best supporting actress in a motion picture
Matt Damon, "Invictus"; Woody Harrelson, "The Messenger"; Christopher Plummer, "The Last Station"; Stanley Tucci, "The Lovely Bones"; Christoph Waltz, "Inglourious Basterds"Will win: Damon
Should win: Unknown. Simply a guess as I am only familiar with Damon and Tucci's performance, Damon was strong as the supporting character in Eastwood's "Invictus". Critics say Waltz should take home the award.
Best supporting actress/Best supporting actor, TV
Jane Adams, "Hung"; Rose Byrne, "Damages"; Jane Lynch, "Glee"; Janet McTeer, "Into the Storm"; Chloë Sevigny, "Big Love"Will win: Lynch
Should win: Lynch - Lynch rises above the pack as the cruel, sarcastic, and always entertaining nemesis on the always amusing "Glee".
When all is said and done I will most likely be incorrect on most of these, but then again, I am just some schmuck sitting at home making predictions that will most likely not be read by many people. What is most important is that the ladies look hot tonight and that Gervais skewers the industry.
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